中国粮食进口贸易的“大国效应”检验

A Study on the “Large Country Effect”of China's Grain Import

以小麦、大麦、玉米、稻米和大豆为例,在分析1995-2014年中国粮食进口贸易概况的基础上,利用多种计量分析方法,对近年来中国粮食进口贸易是否存在"大国效应"进行了检验。结果表明,近年来,中国小麦、大麦、玉米、稻米和大豆的进口量均保持在高位且分别自2009年、1995年、2010年、2011年和1996年以来表现为持续净进口;样本期内,五种主要粮食的中国进口量、国内价格与国际价格之间均存在长期稳定的均衡关系,中国小麦和稻米进口都不存在"大国效应",大麦、玉米和大豆进口则在短期内均存在一定的"大国效应"。

Taking wheat,barley,corn,rice and soybean as examples,and based on the analysis on the overview of China＇s grain import from 1995 to 2014,this paper applies a variety of econometric analytical methods to test whether China＇s grain import have ＂large country effect＂in recent years. The results show that,the imports of wheat,barley,corn,rice and soybean of China have remained high in recent years,and China＇s trade of wheat,barley,corn,rice and soybean have exhibited continuous net import respectively since 2009,1995,2010,2011 and 1996. During the selected periods,there are long-term stable equilibrium relationships among China＇s import,domestic prices and international prices of five major grains. China＇s imports of wheat and rice don＇t have ＂large country effect＂,but imports of barley,corn and soybean have certain ＂large country effect＂in short-term.