棉花雹灾脆弱性试验研究(Ⅰ):模拟降雹对棉花损害的影响

Experimental study on cotton vulnerability to hail hazard: the effect of simulated hailfall on cotton damages

研究棉花雹灾脆弱性可为棉花雹灾风险管理和减灾提供关键科学支撑。应用降雹模拟装置,设计35种降雹情景,进行了降雹对棉花植株损害的田间试验;利用Logistic方法分析了降雹致灾因子与棉花植株损害参数的定量关系。结果表明:随着降雹致灾强度的增加,棉花植株脆弱性增大,导致棉花植株损伤程度增大;棉花蕾期脆弱性大于花铃期,是防预和减轻棉花雹灾的关键期;降雹直径、降雹密度与棉花因雹落叶率、断枝率和落蕾铃率之间均存在显著的Logistic函数关系,降雹直径预测棉花植株雹灾损失效果更优,花铃期较蕾期函数拟合效果更好。研究结果为综合评判降雹对棉花植株损伤提供了科学依据,有助于理解棉花雹灾脆弱性形成的机理。所述研究方法对其他雹灾承灾体脆弱性试验研究有一定参考意义。

Research on cotton vulnerability subject to hail provides a key scientific support for risk management and mitigation of cotton hail hazard. This paper analyzed the quantitative relationship between hail hazard - caused fac- tors and cotton plant damage parameters by field experiments for 35 hail falling scenarios using a set of simulation apparatus and experiment method. Results show that, with the increase of hailfall intensities, the cotton vulnerabil- ity increases, which leads to cotton plant damages increase. Bud period is the key stage for the prevention and miti- gation of cotton hail hazard, because cotton vulnerability in bud period is far greater than that in blooming period. There exists a significant logistic function relation between hail sizes, hail fall densities and damages of cotton or- gans （leaf, stem, bud and boll）. However, compared to hail density, hail size is better in forecasting cotton plants damages. And also, the logistic function fitting accuracy in blooming period is higher than that in bud stage. These results are helpful in revealing the formation mechanism of cotton vulnerability subject tohail hazard, and the pres-ented method can also give a reference to the vulnerability study of other hail hazard - affected bodies.