我国房价与地价的非线性均衡关系研究

Research on the Nonlinear Equilibrium between Housing Price and Land Price of China

利用宏观经济月度数据,采用门槛协整模型方法分析我国房价与地价之间的非线性均衡关系。结果显示,我国房价与地价之间存在长期均衡关系。另外,当房价偏离与地价之间的长期均衡时,无论偏离状态处于何种动量过程,都会以一定的速率向均衡调整,但是调整过程存在非对称性。最后建议针对上述非对称调整过程选择不同的房地产市场调控方式。

Based on monthly macro-economy data of China,the paper uses threshold cointegration model to investigate the nonlinear equilibrium between housing price and land price of China. The conclusion is that there is a long run equilibrium between housing price and land price in China. Furthermore,when housing price is out of equilibrium,whatever it is in upward momentum process or downward momentum process,the housing price will adjust itself to the equilibrium and the adjustment process is asymmetrical. In the end,the paper puts forward suggestion that choosing appropriate regulation methods for the asymmetric adjustment process in real estate market.