近48a宁安市气温降水变化特征分析

Analysis of the changes of temperature and precipitation in recent 48 years in Ning'an

基于牡丹江市宁安观测站1966-2014年的逐日平均气温、逐日最高气温、逐日最低气温和逐日降水资料,利用趋势分析、M-K突变分析和标准化降水指数(SPI)对宁安市的温度和降水的气候变化特征进行统计分析。结果表明:宁安市的年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,其气候倾向率为0.31℃/10 a;宁安市的平均气温在20世纪80年代的后期发生突变,1989年后宁安市平均气温上升趋势显著。在20世纪80年代后期最高气温发生突变,1996年后最高气温的上升趋势显著。最低气温在20世纪80年代前期发生突变,1983年后最低气温上升趋势明显。宁安地区的年降水量最多的年份是1970年,为1220.5 mm。1979年最少,仅有317.0 mm。宁安地区四季都有可能发生旱涝灾害,而雨涝灾害以夏季居多,干旱在秋冬季节更易发生。

Based on Ning’an observation station data of daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation from 1966 to 2014, the climate change characteristics of temperature and precipitation were analysed with trend analysis, M-K mutation analysis and standard precipitation index（SPI）.The results show that： the annual average temperature showed a significant upward trend in Ning’an,the rate is 0.31 ℃/10 a; the average temperature changed suddenly in the late 1980 s, and rised significantly after1989. The maximum temperature changed suddenly in the late 1980 s, and rised significantly after 1996. The minimum temperature changed suddenly in the early 1980 s, and rised significantly after 1983. The Most precipitation occurred in 1970（1220.5mm）, and the least is 317 mm in 1979. Drought and flood disasters may occur throughout the year in Ning’an. Flooding disaster is more susceptible in summer, and drought is more susceptible in autumn and winter.