自然灾害趋势判断模型与效果检验

The model and effect test about the trend judgment of natural disasters

结合定量和定性方法,建立了自然灾害趋势判断效果评价指标,检验对称性及可公度方法用于自然灾害趋势判断的效果。结果表明,地震、旱涝灾害及雪灾趋势判断准确率分别是61.5%、65%、60%,其中,涝(洪)灾准确率达87.5%。该研究为检验趋势判断模型提供了依据,可规范和提高自然灾害趋势判断研究水平。

In order to test the effect of symmetry and commensurability that apply to judging the trend of natural disasters,the objective effect evaluation indexes about the trend judgement of natural disasters were established through combining quantitative method and qualitative method.The results show that the judgment accuracy of earthquake,drought and flood disaster,and snow disaster is 61.5%,65% and 60% respectively.Among them,the judgment accuracy of flood disaster reaches 87.5%.The study provides the evaluation basis for testing the trend judgment,and it can regulate and promote the trend research level about natural disasters.