云南省对外贸易与经济增长实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Yunnan Province

对外贸易被认为是经济增长的外部因素,对推动国家或一个地区经济增长具有"加速器"的作用。文章以云南省为研究对象,选取1981—2014年云南省GDP、进出口数据用协整检验和Granger因果检验分析对外贸易对经济增长的作用。结果表明云南省GDP、进、出口之间存在长期均衡关系,进、出口与GDP之间存在单向因果关系,并且进口是出口的Granger原因。最后根据结果和云南实际情况,对云南省的对外贸易与经济增长协调发展提出了对策和建议。

Foreign trade is regarded as the external factors of economic growth, it likes the ＂accelerator＂ for promoting the economic growth of a country or a region. This paper takes Yunnan Province as the research object to analyze the the role of foreign trade on economic growth by using the co-integration test and Granger casual test of the GDP of Yunnan Province in 1981-2014 and the import and export data. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and import and export in Yunnan Province.There is the one-way causal relationship between import and export and GDP, and import is a Granger cause of export. According to the results and the actual situation in Yunnan, the countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of foreign trade and economic growth of Yunnan Province are put forward.