基于随机Petri网的伤员后送流程仿真分析

Simulation Analysis on the Casualty Evacuation Process Based on Stochastic Petri Net

文章基于芦山地震的背景下,建立地震伤员后送的一般流程。运用随机Petri网的理论对该流程进行建模,基于随机Petri网与马尔科夫链的同构关系,构建伤员后送流程的随机Petri网模型和等价的马尔科夫链(Markov Chain)。根据同构的马尔科夫链得到系统在各种状态下的稳定概率表达式,改变各个变迁的触发速率,分析该流程稳态概率的变化情况,找出地震救援过程中影响伤员后送效率的关键环节。

Based on the background of Lushan Earthquake, this paper builds the general process of casualty evacuation after earthquake. The process modeling is carried out by the theory of Stochastic Petri Net, the Stochastic Petri Net model and homogeneous Markov Chain of casualty evacuation process are built on the basic of the relationship between Stochastic Petri Net and Markov Chain.According to the homogeneous Markov Chain, the stable probability expressions of the system in varieties of conditions are gotten. Change the trigger rate of all the changes, analyze the change situation of steady-state probability of this process to find out the key link that influences the casualty evacuation efficiency in the earthquake rescue process.