能源约束下我国经济增长动因分析

Motivation of China's Economic Growth Under Energy Constraints

构建包含最终产品生产部门和能源生产部门的Ramsey-Cass-Coopmans增长模型。通过数理推导认为,稳态经济增长路径上的经济增长率依赖于能源增长率,经济增长中有足够的能源供应才能保持经济的可持续增长。采用我国2006—2012年30个省市的GDP、专利申请授权数和能源消费的面板数据进行检验。结果表明,能源消费对我国经济增长的影响系数为正,且大于技术进步对经济增长率的影响系数,说明目前我国经济增长仍主要依靠能源消费,据此提出了相关对策建议。

Buih the economic Ramsey- Cass- Coopmans model including final product production sector and the energy production sector, and demonstrated that the economic growth rate on the steady path of economic growth depended on the energy growth. Adequate energy supply was essen- tial to maintain optimal sustainable economic growth. By doing regression analysis on panel data of 30 provinces including GDP, the number of patent applications for authorization and energy consumption from 2006 to 2012, the estimated results supported this conclusion. The results showed that the impact coefficient of energy consumption on China＇ s economic growth was positive and greater than the impact factor of technological progress on eco- nomic growth rate. It certified that China＇ s economy growth was still more to rely on the growth of energy consumption. Finally, this paper put forward some relevant policy recommendations according to the findings.