我国省际能源效率及其节能预警研究

Research on China's Provincial Energy Efficiency and Energy- saving Early Warning

随着能源短缺和环境污染问题的日益凸显,节能越来越受到国家重视。选取我国29个省区2002—2012年的面板数据,利用基于投入导向的BCC-DEA模型测算了我国各省区的全要素能源效率,并通过随机效应Tobit模型对我国省际全要素能源效率的影响因素进行分析。在此基础上,采用Logit回归建立了我国省际节能预警模型,模型预测效果较好,能有效地预测我国各省区出现节能危机的概率并为改善能源效率提供政策建议。

As the emerging of energy shortages and environmental issues, energy - saving was attracting more and more attention. On the basis of the panel data from 2002 to 2012 of 29 Chinese provinces, this paper measured China＇s provincial total - factor energy efficiency by using input - oriented BCC - DEA model and analyzed the influence factors of China＇s provincial total - factor energy efficiency by using random effect Tobit model. On this basis, this paper built China＇ s energy - saving early warning model by using logit model. The model had good prediction effects, it could effectively predict the probability of energy- saving crisis of China＇s provinces and provide the recommendations for improving the energy effi- ciency.