沂沭泗水系临沂站水沙短周期变化特征分析

The Variation Characteristics of Water and Sediment Based on the Linyi Station in Yi-Shu-Si Rivers,Huaihe Basin

根据临沂水文站近10年的实测年径流量及年输沙量资料,利用线性倾向估计法和平滑预测法,对水沙短周期变化特征进行了分析。研究表明,径流变化幅度较小,且呈缓慢下降趋势;平均输沙量、含沙量和输沙模数变化度较大,2005和2009年是发生突变的年份;表征水沙变化特征的主要物理量具有水四年的周期性变化。趋势表明,随着人类活动的加剧,水资源需求增加,径流量仍会减少;粗放型的经济增长方式,会导致水土流失,增加河流输沙量。

Based on the hydrological data in the Yi-Shu-Si Basin from Linyi hydrologic station last decade,the linear regression and smoothing forecasting method were applied to analyze characteristics of water and sediment in short-period variation. The results showed that there was no significant change of annual runoff,and take on decreasing trend gently,and decrease continuously in the future. While showed prominent change is sediment load,sediment concentration and sediment modulus in 2005 and 2009,and take on increasing trend slowly. They physical quantities of water-sediment variation,had main cycles of 4 years. The trend analysis showed that annual runoff continue to decrease with the growth of the demand for water resources. And sediment load increase traditional extensive economic development model,the reason is that soil eroding speed up in that case.