平战结合人防掩蔽工程保障能力评估

The Supporting Capacity Assessment of the Civil Air Defense Projects at Peacetime and Wartime

针对信息化战争条件下人口疏散所面临的挑战,为了发挥人防掩蔽工程最大效能,实现群众安全高效掩蔽,采用运行机制分析、综合统计分析、已有体系调研、专家专题讨论等方法,研究建立反应人防掩蔽工程承载能力和资源保障能力等因素的掩蔽能力综合指标体系。利用模糊综合评判法、层次分析法等理论,建立人防掩蔽工程保障能力评估模型。从平时、战时两方面分析人防掩蔽系统的保障能力评估指数,得到其实际容纳人数。研究结果表明,人防掩蔽工程保障能力综合指标体系及评估模型可以根据掩蔽工程内部因素的变化,实现人防应急掩蔽人数的动态调整,为决策人员调整掩蔽计划提供依据,具有广泛的现实意义。

For the challenges of population evacuating under the condition of information-based war,and in order to maximize the effectiveness of civil air defense projects and realize efficient and safe sheltering of the public,comprehensive index system of sheltering ability is established,which reflects the carrying capacity and resources supporting capacity of civil air defense projects,using the methods of mechanism analysis,comprehensive statistical analysis,research of existing system,expert panel discussion,etc. The methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process are adopted,and a supporting capability evaluation model of civil air defense projects is established. The model analyzes the support capability evaluation index from the two aspects of peacetime and wartime to obtain the actual capacity of a civil air defense project. The results showed that the comprehensive index system and evaluation model can realize dynamic adjustment for the number of people sheltered by civil air defense projects basing on the change of the projects' internal factors,and provide basis for decision makers to adjust the sheltering plan,which will have a wide range of practical significance.