基于组合赋权-云模型理论的岩爆预测研究

Prediction of Rock Burst-based on Combination Weighting and Cloud Model Theory

岩爆是地下工程中一种常见的地质灾害现象,其烈度分级对地下工程建设有重要的指导意义。收集了37例发生岩爆灾害的地下工程的调查资料结合已有岩爆理论(按岩石力学性质、围岩应力条件、围岩结构条件3个方面)总结出15个岩爆影响因素评价指标。采用主观赋权(层次分析法)、客观赋权(熵权法)相结合的方式对各影响因素进行赋权。然后采用云模型理论实现岩爆烈度与影响因素间的不确定映射,采用正向云发生器算法求得样本各个岩爆烈度等级的综合确定度,并判别岩爆等级。最后采取该评判模型对某水电站地下洞室进行岩爆烈度等级判别,其判别结果与实际岩爆等级相符,证实该方法具有一定的适用性。

Rock burst is a common geological hazard in underground openings. The intensity grading of rock burst is of great importance to underground construction. Geologic information and data of 37 rock burst sites was analyzed,as a result,15 influential factors of rock burst( considering rock mechanical properties,surrounding rock structures and stress condition) was proposed. A new weighting method which combined subjective weighting( analytic hierarchy process) with objective weighting( entropy weight method) was employed to empower each influencing factor. Then,based on the theory of cloud model,the rock burst certainty of 37 sample cases was calculated normal cloud generator,a mapping of rock burst certainty to rock burst intensity grade was established. Finally,as an example,this evaluation model was used to determine the rock burst intensity level of an underground cavern of a hydropower station. The result agrees with the actual rock burst level,which proves that the method was applicable.