基于多主体仿真的技术创新扩散波的形成

The Formation of Wave of Technology Innovation Diffusion Based on the Multi-Agent Simulation

以Netlogo 5.0作为分析工具,基于宏观创新和微观创新的分类,模拟了创新扩散的过程。根据自洽性和完整性,创新采纳事件又可以分为创新产生事件、创新采纳事件和程序升级事件。通过运行发现:首先,宏观创新价值呈现出周期性的波动;其次,创新采纳的人数呈现周期性的波动;最后,要形成创新的扩散波,微观价值的重要性必须在某一个合理的区间,超出了这个区间,扩散波将不复存在。

Based on the classification of micro and macro innovation, the paper used Netlogo 5. 0 as the analysis tool to simulate the in- novation diffusion process. According to the autonomy and integrity, innovation adoption events can be divided into three events： inno- vation generation event, innovation adoption event and program update event. By running the simulation, we can find： firstly, the macro innovation value exhibits periodic fluctuation; secondly, the number of innovation adoption presents periodic fluctuation; final- ly, in order to form the diffusion wave of innovation, the importance of value of a micro innovation must be in a reasonable zone, and beyond this range, the diffusion wave would not exist.