贸易伙伴与我国全要素生产率变动——基于I2C、NI2P、NI2E和E2C、E2P细分贸易数据的实证分析

Trading Partners and Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Analysis Based on I2C/NI2P/NI2E/E2C/E2P Trade Data

本文在借鉴国外学者最新贸易划分方式的基础上,运用动态面板模型,实证分析了贸易伙伴国与我国全要素生产率变动之间的关系。研究发现:在所有类型的贸易中,并非所有类型的贸易增长都能带来技术溢出效应和学习效应。其中E2P贸易和NI2P贸易未起到带动我国全要素生产率增长的效应,这与我国粗放型的经济增长方式和外贸发展方式密切相关;发达贸易伙伴并未完全起到技术进步的带动作用,其细分贸易中的E2P贸易和NI2P贸易存在显著的负向效应;不发达贸易伙伴国的NI2E贸易对我国全要素生产率的提高具有一定的促进作用。

On the basis of the latest trade division method from abroad, us- ing the dynamic panel model, this article empirically analyzes the relationship be- tween trade partners and the change of Total Factor Productivity （TFP）. The re- suits show that： （1） not all types of trade growth can bring about the technology spillover effect, among which E2P and NI2P cannot improve TFP, which is close- ly related to the extensive growth mode of foreign trade and economic develop- ment; （2） E2P and NI2P with developed trading partners have negative effects on China＇ s TFP, （3） NI2E with non- developed trading partners has positive ef- fects on China＇ s TFP.