对外直接投资、市场分割与产能过剩治理

Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Market Segmentation and Eradication of Excess Capacity

本文基于产能利用率在生产侧与消费侧进行分解,测算了中国31个省市区的工业部门产能过剩指数,并采用可以有效控制内生性问题的系统广义矩估计方法考察了对外直接投资、市场分割以及其他因素对产能过剩的影响,结果表明:由于生产侧技术效率损失与消费侧供大于求,产能过剩现象在中国各地区普遍存在;生产技术水平较高、消费能力较强两个因素导致东部地区的产能过剩程度远低于中西部地区;对外直接投资、出口比重、创新投入比重的提升可以缓解产能过剩现象;而地方保护导致的市场分割、过度投资将恶化产能过剩现象。市场分割程度的上升将会弱化对外直接投资对产能过剩的缓解作用。因此治理产能过剩需要弱化地方政府干预经济的能力,消除市场分割,加速建立中国统一的消费市场,并且在此基础上鼓励中国工业企业的海外投资行为。

Based on the decomposition of the capacity utilization rate in the production side and the consumer side, the paper estimates the excess capacity in- dex of 31 provinces of Chinese industry, and then using the method of System GMM which can effectively control the endogenous problem, the paper investi- gates the effects of OFDI, market segmentation and other factors on the excess capacity. The results show that for the loss of technical efficiency on the produc- tion side and the oversupply on the consumption side, overcapacity is prevalent in China. The higher production technical level and stronger consuming capacity make the excess capacity of the eastern region is much lower than that of the central and western regions. The proportion of OFDI, export and innovation can ease the overcapacity phenomenon; but the market segmentation caused by the protection of local government and overinvestment can exacerbate overcapacity. Therefore, to eliminate the excess capacity, it is necessary to weaken the ability of local government intervention in the economy, eradicate market segmentation, accelerate the establishment of a unified China consumer market, and then encour- age overseas investment behavior of Chinese industrial enterprises.