财政支出偏向、金融约束与中国外贸失衡

Fiscal Expenditure Bias, Financial Constraints and China's Trade Imbalance

自1994年以来,与我国持续的对外贸易失衡相伴随的重要现象就是国内财政支出偏向问题一直显著存在。其中,生产性公共品的大量财政支出,形成了对企业的巨额补贴,增加了企业在社会总产出中的分配比例,这又使得企业的储蓄投资倾向进一步强化。而居民相对收入的下降以及政府在社保等非生产性公共品支出上的不足导致其消费能力受限、储蓄率难以降低。全社会由此形成的高额储蓄,在我国金融市场存在约束的条件下,难以被完全转化为国内的投资和消费。因此,国内大量过剩的储蓄只能以商品和服务净出口的形式加以平衡,与此对应的即为我国对外贸易的失衡。在进一步的计量检验中验证了上述理论假说的正确性,即:财政支出偏向和金融市场约束是我国对外贸易失衡的重要促成因素。因此,在我国实行更加平衡的进出口贸易发展战略过程中,应该更加重视财政支出结构和金融市场深化在其中所起的重要作用。

Since 1994, one of the most significant phenomena accompanied with China＇s persistent trade imbalance is the fiscal expenditure bias. A large number of expenditure on productive public goods provides huge subsidies to en- terprises, increasing the proportion of enterprises in the distribution of social total output, which leads enterprises to strengthen the saving and investment tendency. The relative decline in income of residents and the insufficient government expen- diture on non- productive public goods make the consumption capacity of resi- dents limited and it is difficult to reduce the saving ratio. The whole society＇s huge savings, with the constraints of the financial market, find it difficult to be completely translated into domestic investment and consumption. Therefore, a large number of domestic excess savings can only be balanced in the form of net exports of goods and services, which leads to the foreign trade imbalance of China accordingly. The further econometric analysis proves the above theoretical hypothesis, that is, fiscal expenditure bias and financial constraints are the impor- tant factors causing China＇s foreign trade imbalance. Therefore, in the process of implementing a more balanced development strategy of import and export trade, China should pay more attention to the important roles of the financial expendi- ture structure and financial market deepening.