债务、增长与危机:基于债务异质性的考证

Debt,Growth and Crisis:Based on Heterogeneity of the Debt

本文在细分债务类型的基础上,利用典型OECD国家1980-2009年的面板数据,采用多种方法考察了政府债务和私人债务对经济增长的影响,在此基础上进一步实证分析二者与系统性银行业危机的关系。结果表明:(1)政府债务对经济增长的影响不显著,私人债务的积累则与经济增长高度负相关;将私人债务细分为家庭债务与企业债务,结果显示二者之间存在差异:企业债务的增加会显著制约经济增长,家庭债务与经济增长的相关性并不显著。(2)对于危机这一特殊事件的发生,各类型债务又在其中扮演了不同的角色,概率估计的结果显示,就危机爆发而言,政府债务规模与银行业危机是否发生之间并无必然联系,而私人债务则是银行业危机的根源;无论是家庭债务抑或是企业债务的积累均提高了危机发生的概率,此时二者并未显示出本质的区别。这对于认识当前有关全球经济的争论乃至我国的债务问题均具有重要启示意义。

We use a new dataset that includes the level of government, non-financial corporate and household debt in 18 OECD countries from 1980 to 2009 to investigate the real effects of different types of debt. Our results support the view that： private debt is a drag on growth, and there is difference between corporate and household debt： The increase of corporate debt will restrict economic growth, but correlation between household debt and growth is not significant. At the same time, non-financial corporate and household debt expansions tend to be followed by banking crisis, government debt is not the causes of the crisis. This has important implications for the understanding of the significance of the current debt problems of the global economy as well as our country.