甘肃省2009-2013年流行性腮腺炎发病时空扫描分析

Spatial temporal distribution of mumps in Gansu, 2009-2013

目的 使用空间统计学的方法,分析甘肃省2009-2013年流行性腮腺炎报告发病率的时空分布特征,探索发病的时空聚集区.方法 利用甘肃省2009-2013年流行性腮腺炎报告发病率数据,以区（县）水平计算其空间分布的全局、局部自相关系数,并分析时空分布特征.结果 甘肃省2009-2013年流行性腮腺炎报告发病率存在空间相关性（P＜0.001）;局部G统计量分析显示热点区域主要分布于河西地区,冷点区域主要分布于天水、陇南及庆阳的部分县（区）.时空分析结果显示,甘肃省2009-2013年流行性腮腺炎报告发病率存在时空聚集性,高发病率最大可能聚集区分布于河西地区,聚集时间为2012-2013年（RR=3.05,LLR=4 670.995,P＜0.001）,低发病率最大可能聚集区分布于陇东地区,聚集时间为2009-2010年（RR=0.36,LLR=1 980.686,P＜0.001）.结论 甘肃省2009-2013年流行性腮腺炎发病率存在空间和时空聚集区域,对流行性腮腺炎监测及防控策略的制定具有重要意义.

Objective To detect the spatial temporal distribution of mumps in Gansu by means of spatial statistics.Methods The county-based incidence of mumps from 2009 to 2013 was used to calculate the global Moran＆#39; s I and local G statistics, and analyze its spatial temporal distribution characteristics.Results The incidence of mumps in Gansu were spatial auto-correlated from 2009 to 2013 respectively （P〈0.001）, and the hot spots were mainly distributed in Hexi area,while the cold spots were distributed in Tianshui, Longnan and Qingyang.Spatial temporal analysis showed that the high incidence of mumps was most likely to be detect in Hexi area （RR=3.05, LLR=4 670.995, P〈0.001）, and the low incidence was most likely to be detect in Longdong area （RR=0.36,LLR=1 980.686,P〈0.001）.Conclusion The spatial and spatial temporal clustering of mumps existed in Gansu from 2009 to 2013, the results can be used in the development of mumps prevention and control measure in Gansu.