气象因素对钉螺密度变化的影响分析

Analysis on influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density

目的 研究自然条件下气象因素对钉螺密度变化的影响,为控制血吸虫病及其钉螺扩散提供科学依据.方法 收集1990-2014年湖北省潜江市春季查螺资料及地面气象观测数据,采用一阶自回归分析方法对实际钉螺密度进行趋势拟合与分解,利用相关分析法对钉螺密度变化率与不同时段、不同气象要素进行相关性分析.结果 对钉螺密度影响最大的气象因子是温度,其次为降水;其中1月平均最低气温和冬季平均最低气温分别是钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率影响最大的温度因子;1月平均最低温度升高（或降低）1℃,将会导致钉螺密度上升（或下降）5.080％～ 6.710％;冬季平均最低温度升高（或降低）1℃,活螺框变化率上升（或下降）15.521％～15.928％.降水对钉螺密度影响最大的时段是上年11月至当年4月,该时段内降水偏少20％以上,有利于降低钉螺密度.9-11月日照与钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率存在一定相关性.在相关分析基础上分别建立了钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率与气象因子的统计回归模型.结论 在12月到来之前清除有螺区杂草有利于降低地表温度和土壤水分含量,能取得一定的灭螺效果.伴随全球气候变化湖北省冬季温度升高趋势明显,可能引发钉螺密度升高.

Objective To understand the influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density in natural condition and provide scientific evidence for the control of the spread of schistosomiasis and Oncomelania.Methods Based on the Oncomelania survey data in spring and ground meteorological observation data of Qianjiang from 1990 to 2014, the first-order autoregressive analysis method was used for trend fitting and disassemble, and the correlation between the change rate of Oncomelania density and various meteorological factors in different periods were analyzed.Results The greatest influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density was temperature,followed by precipitation.The average minimum temperature in January and from December to February had predominant influence on Oncomelania density and frame occurrence rate of living Oncomelania （FORLO） respectively.The rise （fall） of average minimum temperature in January by 1 ℃ would lead to the increase （decrease） of Oncomelania density by 5.080%-6.710%;The rise （fall） of average minimum temperature from December to February by 1 ℃ would lead to the increase （decrease） of FORLO by 15.521%-15.928%.The period with the biggest influence of precipitation on Oncomelania density was from November to April, as the rainfall declined 〉20%, drought might occur, which would cause the reduction of Oncomelania density.Sunshine from September to November had some correlations with the change of Oncomelania density and FORLO.Statistical regression models for the change of Oncomelania density, FORLO and meteorological factors based on correlation analysis were established respectively.Conclusion Weed removal in Oncomelania areas before December is beneficial to reduce the surface temperature and soil moisture content, which would result in Oncomelania density reduction in some extent.It＆#39; s notable that the winter temperature is in rise in Hubei province along with global climate change, causing the Oncomelania density to increase, to which more attention should be paid.