基于等差值方法的乡镇温度订正预报研究

Town Temperature Forecast Amendment Based on Equal Difference

根据新宾地理气候环境特征,利用等差值方法制作乡镇温度订正预报,并分别检验基准站预报值与实况值的绝对差值在0.5℃内、1℃内、2℃内时,各乡镇温度订正预报的准确度。结果表明,利用等差值方法进行乡镇温度订正预报是可行的,且基准站预报值偏离实况值在0.5℃内对乡镇温度订正预报结果几乎没有影响,随着两者的绝对差值增大,对各乡镇的预报准确率的影响就越大。

According to geographical, climatic and environmental characteristics of Xinbin, equal difference method was adopted for the forecast amendment of town temperature, and testified the precision of town temperature forecast amendment as the absolute difference between predicated value and real value was below 0.5℃, 1℃ and 2℃. The resuits showed that equal difference method was suitable for the forecast amendment of town temperature, and the absolute difference between predicated value and real value below 0.5% had nearly no impact on the result of forecast amendment, but the impact was en- hanced as the absolute differences increased.