“中国制造”对全球经济“大稳健”的影响——基于价值链的实证检验

The Influence of "Made in China" on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy—An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains

采集22个中国主要贸易伙伴1984—2012年的数据,利用System GMM方法剖析"中国制造"对全球经济"大稳健"时期的影响,研究发现:贸易规模、实际有效汇率、石油价格、固定资本投资等变量显著扩大了全球经济波动,但是"中国制造"显著抑制了各国产出增长率波动,显著降低了发达国家物价水平的波动,有助于全球经济增长维系在"高水平、低波动"区制。全球价值链下的"中国制造"是一个长期变量。中国应利用全球价值链重组,进一步提升和发展加工制造业,拓展国际市场空间;面对发达国家不合理的贸易制裁,有选择地使用"镜像策略",选取对方同一行业或者相似企业进行相应的反制裁;加强与其他国家的政策协调,改善全球经济治理,构建全球价值链时代的国际经济新秩序。

Our research collects data from 22 of China's major trading partners from 1984 to 2012 to analyze the influence of 'made in China' upon the 'Great Moderation' of the global economy using the System GMM method.Our results show that such variables as scale of trade,real effective exchange rates,oil prices and fixed capital investment significantly magnified global economic fluctuations,but 'made in China' had a significant effect in checking fluctuations in each country's rate of output growth and markedly decreased price fluctuations in developed countries,thus helping the global economy sustain a 'high growth,low volatility' regime.In the global value chain, 'made in China' is a long-term variable.China should employ the reorganization of the global value chain to further enhance and develop its processing and manufacturing and to expand its international market space.Faced with developed countries' irrational trade sanctions,it should selectively employ a counter-sanction 'mirror strategy' against counterpart or similar enterprises and should strengthen policy coordination with other countries to improve global economic governance and build a new order for the international economy in the age of the global value chain.