2016年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测

International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2016

2016年,OPEC的产量决策将对全球石油供应形势产生重要的影响,也将影响市场对于油价重回上升通道的信心和预期。全球经济形势,特别是OECD国家的复苏进度将成为影响需求增长的关键因素。美元汇率走势、市场投机活动以及地缘政治事件都将成为油价短期波动的不确定因素。文章通过自主研发的油价综合分析预测系统预测,2016年国际油价将继续保持低位震荡,Brent年平均油价为53美元/桶,WTI年平均油价为49美元/桶,平均价差为4美元/桶。影响这一趋势的最大不确定性是OPEC的政策以及OPEC与俄罗斯等产油国之间的博弈。

OPEC production decisions will have important impacts on the global oil supply situation and also affect the confidence and market expectation for the recovery of upward trend of oil prices in 2016. The recovery progress of the global economy, especially OECD countries will be the key factor in the impact of demand growth. Besides, the changes of US dollar exchange rate, behaviors of market speculation and impacts of geopolitical events will influence the uncertainty of the short-term fluctuations in the oil prices. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that oil prices will still keep fluctuations at a low level in 2016, and the Brent average year price may stand at 55 dollar per barrel and WTI average year price stand at 51 dollar per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will be narrowed to 4 dollar per barrel. The production decision in OPEC and competition for market share among OPEC, Russia and other oil producers will be the largest uncertainty affecting oil price forecasting.