云南省能源消耗的历史演变特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of the Historical Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption in Yunnan Province

根据云南省1962-2011年国民经济和能源消耗统计数据,系统分析了云南省能源消耗的历史演变特征。并采用Pearson相关和多元逐步回归方法分析了云南省能源消耗增长的影响因素。结果表明,近50年以来,云南省能耗总量逐年增加且增速显著;形成了以煤炭为主,水电和石油次之,天然气较少的能耗结构;第二产业能耗量占主体,第三产业次之,居民消费和第一产业能耗较小。单位GDP能耗强度以1977年为分界点呈先上升后下降的趋势。对云南省能源消耗增长起着主要作用的因素是能耗结构和能耗效率。

According to the data about economic and energy consumption of Yunnan Province in 1962-2011years,the historical evolution characteristics of energy consumption were analyzed. Pearson correla-tion and multiple stepwise regression method were used to analyze the factors of affecting energy consump-tion growth in Yunnan province. The results showed that,in the past 50 years,the total energy consump-tion increased year by year and growth rates were significant. Energy consumption structure formed by coal mainly,Hydropower and oil second and natural gas least. Second industrial energy consumption accounted for the main body,the third industry second and resident consumption least. Energy consumption intensity of unit GDP were first increased and then decreased and the cut-off point were in 1977 year. The main factors affecting energy consumption growth were energy structure and energy efficiency in Yunnan Province.