货币政策影响下收入和房价的跨区域联动

Trans-regional Interaction between Income and Housing Prices under Given Monetary Policy

本文首先构建了解释货币政策对不同城市房价的区域差异性影响、城市间房价的跨区溢出以及收入对房价的跨区影响的分析框架。之后,利用中国35个大城市的面板数据,本文通过GVAR模型对该框架进行了实证研究。结果表明,货币供应量变动对一线城市和东部城市房价的正向影响高于其对中西部城市的影响。北京等一线城市的房价波动对其它城市房价有明显的溢出效应,而中西部城市的房价溢出效应则不明显。一线城市和东部城市的房价在很大程度上受其它城市收入变动的影响,而中西部城市的房价主要受本城市收入变动的影响。最后,基于理论分析和实证结果,本文提出了有针对性的政策建议。

Firstly, this paper establish an analysis frame to explain the spillovers of housing price, the trans-regional impact of income per capita on housing price and the different impact of monetary supply on housing price. Then, using GVAR model,this paper empirically study not only the spillovers of housing price and real income per capita among China＇s 35 major cities but also the impact of M2 shock on the housing price dynamics among these cities. The empirical results show that, the first-tier cities, such as Beijing, have comparatively large spillovers of housing price, while the spillovers in central and western cities are not obvious. The housing price of first-tier and eastern cities are not only affected by the real income per capita of these cities themselves but also affected by that of other cities to a great extent, while housing price in central and western cities are mainly affected by the real income per capita of these cities themselves. M2 changes have weak influence on the housing price of central and western cities, but large influence on that of first-tier cities and eastern cities. The empirical results have definite policy implications.