中国的实际汇率制度:基于BBC框架的动态考察

China's Real Exchange Rate Regime—Dynamic Research under the Framework of BBC

本文基于汇率篮子、波动区间、爬行速度三维指标构建了广义的汇率制度识别框架,并利用状态空间模型对中国的实际汇率制度及其变迁轨迹进行动态考察。结果表明:2005年汇改前中国事实上实行单一盯住美元的固定汇率制;2005-2008年、2010-2015年中国实行参照一篮子货币的浮动汇率制;而在2008-2010年间实行的是参考盯住一篮子货币的固定汇率制;汇改后人民币汇率篮子中美元占比仍稳定在86%-90%之间,其他货币主要起"点缀"作用;尽管人民币相对一篮子货币存在趋势性升值、贬值的变化,但人民币的汇率制度弹性自2008年起长期未变;未来深化汇率形成机制改革可从完善人民币中间价定价机制等角度入手。

In the presence of ＂words vs. deeds＂ phenomenon in exchange rate regime choosing, this paper constructs a generalized exchange rate regime identification framework on the basis of three-dimensional index-Basket, Bands, Crawling speed. Furthermore, we implement a dynamic research on China＇s real exchange rate regime and its evolution path. Empirical result shows that： China actually implemented a single fixed exchange rate regime that RMB was pegged to the US dollar before exchange rate reform in July 2005; after the reform, China actually implemented a Basket Band Crawling regime,except the period between 2008 and 2010, in which China shifted to Basket pegging regime; US dollars are weighted for 86%~90% in RMB exchange rate basket, while other currencies account for a small proportion; although RMB has pegged its value to the currency basket, the flexibility of RMB has long been unchanged since 2008. To deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, micro enterprises＇ and individuals＇ autonomy in holding foreign exchange should be expanded, banks＇ foreign exchange position limit should be abolished, and foreign exchange market should be more open to participants by providing abundant foreign exchange products, PBOC should further optimize the RMB currency basket and improve the formation mechanism of the RMB central parity.