基于质量反馈的武器装备协同研制过程仿真及灵敏度分析

Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis of Collaborative Developing Process of Weaponry Based on Quality Feedback

对于一项工程的3个性能指标:工期、成本和质量,质量是非常重要的一项指标。在设计结构矩阵模型基础上,采用基于质量反馈的方式来描述任务间的返工,使子任务的完工质量达到预期的质量指标,然后运用蒙特卡洛模拟法仿真得出项目的工期和成本。通过这种方式将工期、成本和质量联系在一起,并通过灵敏度分析获得各任务的质量对项目进度风险和费用风险的影响程度。研究结果表明:在某军用飞机预研设计过程中,"机体结构设计"任务的灵敏度最高,项目管理者可以通过协调资源的分配来有重点地控制项目的风险。

Among three performance indicators,such as time of duration,cost and quality,of a project,the quality is very important. To make the completion quality of the subtask achieve the prospective quality indicator,the process of rework is described by means of quality-feedback based on design structure matrix. Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain the total cost and time of the project. In this way,the time of duration,cost and quality are linked together to study the influence of quality on schedule risk and cost risk of the project through the analysis of the sensitivity. The research results show that the sensitivity of airframe structure design task is the highest in the process of advanced development of a certain military aircraft,so the project manager can give priority to control the process risk by coordinating the allocation of resources.