自贸区是如何促进各国货币政策趋同的?——基于多国新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型的分析

How Does Convergence of Monetary Policies Happen within One FTA? Empirical Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Model in Multi-Countries

本文在多国DSGE模型的视角下分析了自由贸易区内各国货币政策趋同现象的发生机制,发现随着贸易壁垒的逐步降低,来自国外商品的输入型通货膨胀对本国经济的影响增强,为了稳定本国经济,各国的货币政策都会盯住来自国外的输入型通货膨胀,因此出现了各国货币政策趋同的现象。另外,经济规模对货币政策的独立性具有显著影响,经济规模越大的经济体,其货币政策越独立。数值模拟的结果也证实输入型通货膨胀是自贸区内各成员国之间货币政策趋同的重要原因和传导机制。

This paper analyzes the mechanism of convergence effect of monetary policies within one free trade area.In this paper,we find that as the barriers to trade is decreasing,the influence from imported inflation to domestic economy is more and more,and so all countries will set their monetary policies to peg the imported inflation to make their domestic economy stable.The result is that the phenomenon of convergence of monetary policies happens because they peg their monetary policy to import inflation each other.In addition,we find that the economic scale has significant influence on the independency of monetary policy,namely the more economic scale is,the more independent the monetary policy is.Based on the above analysis,we take simulation in this paper to show the generation of convergence phenomenon among countries within a free trade area and find that imported inflation is the propagation mechanism and the reason for convergence phenomenon.