基于前景理论的直觉模糊决策方法及其在配送中心选址中的应用

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Decision Making Method based on Prospect Theory and Its Application in Distribution Center Location

为提高配送中心选址的效率,构建基于前景理论的直觉模糊多属性决策方法,并将其应用于配送中心的选址决策中。介绍直觉模糊集的相关概念,提出一种改进的得分函数算法,并与前景理论相结合构建新的决策模型。在此基础上对配送中心选择的决策流程进行规划,并选取营运成本、交通因素、客户服务等指标构建配送中心选址的评价指标体系。通过算例对某电商平台的配送中心选址决策进行评价。本方法一方面在决策评价过程引入直觉模糊数,充分考虑决策过程中专家评价的不确定性和专家打分的犹豫度水平;另一方面使用基于前景理论的决策方法进行综合评价,充分考虑人们在面临收益和损失时风险偏好的差异性,使得决策结果更加符合人们的真实意图,从而得到更合理的决策效果。算例结果表明,本文方法与直觉模糊TOPSIS决策方法的计算结果一致,且前者的区分度更大,更有利于配送中心水平的划分,进而提高决策的质量,降低决策风险。

In this paper,we construct an intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method based on prospect theory in order to improve the location efficiency of the distribution center,and apply it to the location decision of distribution center. Firstly,this paper introduces the related concepts of intuitionistic fuzzy sets; secondly,proposes an improved scoring function algorithm and builds a new decision- making model with the prospect theory,based on which the decision process of the distribution center selection is planned,and then the evaluation indicator system is built selecting the operating cost,the traffic factor and the customer service as the evaluation indicators; finally,the decision about the distribution center location of some electric business platform is evaluated by a numerical example. This method on the one hand introduces the intuitionistic fuzzy number in the decision evaluation,and takes into account the uncertainty of expert evaluation and the degree of uncertainty. On the other hand,making a comprehensive evaluation with the method of decision- making based on prospect theory,has fully considered the difference of the risk preference in the face of the income and the loss,so that the decision result is more consistent with people＇s true intention and we can get more reasonable decision effect from it. The calculation result shows the results of this paper are consistent with the results of the original intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS decision method,and the former is more differentiated,thus more advantageous to the distribution of the center level,and thenwe can finally improve the quality of decision- making and reduce the risk of decision- making.