防城港“回南天”分析及预报

Analysis and Forecasting of “huinantian” in Fang Cheng Gang

利用建筑物内壁温度计算公式,反演出2009—2013年防城港市共出现16次"回南天"过程,并利用气温、露点、湿度、micaps常规资料以及NCEP分析资料对这16次个例的天气形势、气象要素变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:长时间控制广西的冷空气影响结束后,广西上空迅速转受暖湿气流控制,当室外空气露点大于室内物体温度时,"回南天"现象就会产生;气温快速回升,露点高于室内物体温度是"回南天"出现的必要条件,要重点分析未来露点的变化;"回南天"有冷性结束和暖性结束两种结束方式。

by using a fitting formula of wall temperature, 16 cases of ＂ huinantian＂ processes in Fang Cheng Gang from 2009 to 2013 was inverted, and an analysis was made in the aspects of circulation patterns and characteristics based on the data of air temperature, dew point, humidity,and MICAPS data and NCEP reanalysis data. The result indicates： after the termination of the influence of cold air, warm and wet air affects Guangxi when the dew point of outdoor air is higher than the indoor object temperature, and the ＂ huinantian＂ event appears on the background of cold air making a sudden turn into warm air; the rapid rise of air temperature is the necessary condition for the＂ huinantian＂; the trend of future dew point should be selectively analyzed; ＂ huinantian＂ normally disappears in two ways： cold ending and warm ending.