世界经济冲击与中国外贸波动——基于多国VAR模型的实证研究

International Economic Shocks and China' s Foreign Trade Fluctuation: An Empirical Study Based on Multinational VAR

文章使用全球向量自回归模型方法对世界主要经济体构建一个增广的VAR模型,分析了主要发达经济体宏观经济波动对中国外贸进出口产生的影响。研究发现,就单个经济体宏观变量波动的影响程度而言,美国和日本GDP波动对中国外贸进出口的影响要高于欧盟。美国金融市场变量冲击对中国外贸进出口产生了显著且复杂的影响效应。人民币汇率波动在应对外部冲击时发挥了一定作用。中国经济结构调整可能会对外贸发展产生长远影响。在以一般贸易为主的外贸结构下,外部经济波动的传导效应会更加明显。这将为未来的宏观经济调控带来更大挑战。

This paper investigates the effects of developed countriess' economic shocks on China's import and export by building an augment VAR model,which is the Global Vector Auto-Regressive( GVAR) model. The results indicate that the effects of USA's and Japan's GDP shocks are higher than that of European area. The shocks of USA' s financial market variables produce significant and complicated effects on China's import and export. China uses the exchange rate policy to alleviate the international economic shocks. China's economic structure adjustment process might bring long-last effects on its foreign trade development. Under the structure that process trade becomes a minor proportion,the transmission effects of external economic shocks will become a little more significant. This means higher request for future macro economic adjustment policy.