中国对非直接投资的减贫效应——基于动态面板的经验研究

Poverty Reduction Effect of Chinese FDI to Africa: A Study based on the Methodology of Dynamic Panel Data GMM

文章基于动态面板GMM的估计方法和比较分析方法，运用2003～2011年非洲大陆21个国家的样本数据实证检验了来自中国的直接投资对非洲东道国减贫的影响。结果显示，与非洲东道国吸收的外商直接投资相同，中国对非直接投资与非洲东道国的贫困减少存在倒“U”型关系，即达到一定临界值之前，中国对非洲东道国外商直接投资越多则对其减贫反而起到负作用，当达到临界值后，中国继续增加对非的直接投资则存在减贫效应。非洲东道国对外开放水平的提升、基础设施的改善、资本积累的提高以及政府的减贫努力对其贫困的减缓具有正向的促进作用。但非洲东道国当前的产业结构尤其是农业对减贫没有正向作用。

Based on the methodology of dynamic panel data GMM and the comparative analysis,this paper conducts an empirical research on poverty reduction effect of Chinese FDI to Africa by using the sample data of 21 African countries from the year 2003 to2011. The results show that the same as the absorption of FDI in African host countries,Chinese FDI and African poverty reduction has an inverted U-shaped relationship,namely before reaches a certain critical value,it has a negative effect of Chinese increasing FDI to host countries. while reached the critical value,there will have a positive poverty reduction effect with Chinese FDI increasing. And to ascension the level of opening up,improvement the infrastructure,increase the accumulation of capital and government's poverty reduction efforts of African host countries play a positive role to slow down their poverty. However,the current industrial structure,especially the agriculture did not play its role of poverty reduction.