能源对外直接投资的进口贸易效应与类型甄别——基于结构式引力模型的系统GMM估计

Effect of Chinese Energy Outward FDI on its Imports and FDI Differentiation: Based on Structural Gravity Models

文章根据2005～2013年中国能源对外投资与能源进出口贸易数据，构造结构式水平型与垂直型投资引力模型，运用系统广义矩估计法（GMM），实证检验了中国能源对外直接投资的进口贸易效应，并依据模型假设对能源投资的类型予以甄别。研究结果表明：总体上中国能源对外直接投资促进了能源进口贸易，且贸易量与中国及贸易伙伴国的GDP显著正相关，与地理距离显著负相关。与双边GDP之和（市场支付能力）弱负相关，与相对要素禀赋显著正相关；中国对高收入国家进行能源直接投资产生负向进口贸易效应即替代关系，而对非高收入国家产生正向进口贸易效应即互补关系；整体上中国能源对外直接投资表现为垂直分割生产型投资，其中对高收入国家的能源直接投资显著为垂直型投资，对非高收入国家则兼有水平型和垂直型投资特征。

This paper builds a set of structural gravity model consisted of both vertical and horizontal FDI,and employs system-GMM to analyze the effect of Chinese energy outward FDI( OFDI) on its energy imports which is referred to as trade effect. Further,we determine the types of Chinese energy OFDI,based on the hypothesis tests derived from the constraints of parameters in the theoretical models. The results show that,firstly,Chinese energy OFDI promotes its energy imports over the whole sample,but differs in the sub-samples. Secondly,Chinese energy OFDI has a negative trade effect on the high-income host countries,but has a positive trade effect on non-high-income host countries. Thirdly,Chinese energy OFDI is characterized as vertically fragmented OFDI in production overall,of which is shown to be vertical for the high-income host countries,which is mixed of both vertical and horizontal type for the non-high-income host countries.