福利支出、经济结构与政府债务规模——基于欧盟的实证研究

Welfare Spending, Economic Structure and Governments' Debt Scale:An Empirical Research Based on EU Studies

通过对欧盟债务危机的相关影响因素及其对各国影响的实证研究,可以为欧盟债务后危机时代的社会治理和其他国家的经济社会发展提供一些有价值的参考建议。研究发现,社会福利支出、公共支出是欧元区政府债务危机的重要推手,税收、总储蓄、国内投资以及净出口对不同经济结构国家的政府债务规模的影响机制不同。对于债务危机国家而言,单一地削减福利支出、增加净出口、扩大国内投资和增加税收都不是化解危机的有效策略,最根本的途径是对欧盟的经济结构、金融体制等进行调整和改革。这些经验与教训对于我国推行经济发展"新常态"具有重大的启示意义。

Through the empirical studies of the relative influencing factors of EU debt crisis and its impact on the other countries, some valuable suggestions can be provided for the social governance during the post-crisis era after the EU debt crisis and for the economical and social develop- ment of other countries. This paper argues that social welfare expenditure and public expenditure are two important pushers to the euro zone debt crisis, but the tax, total savings, domestic investment and net exports have different influencing mechanisms on the government debt scale of countries with different types of economic structures. As for the countries involved in debt crisis, such measures as cutting in welfare expenditures, increasing net exports, expanding domestic investments and increasing taxes are simply not effective to resolve the crisis. The most fundamental way is to adjust and reform the EU economic structure and financial system. These experiences and lessons have significant enlightenment for China＇s new normal economic development.