气象因素对其他感染性腹泻病的影响

Effects of meteorological factors on other types of infectious diarrhea

为探讨气象因素对其他感染性腹泻病日发病人数的影响程度,收集2005-2010年兰州市城关区其他感染性腹泻病发病人数和气象资料,包括平均气温、平均气压、相对湿度、降水量、平均风速和日照时数.在应用相关分析和主成分分析等定性研究气象因素与其他感染性腹泻病发病关系的基础上,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型,控制长期趋势和星期几效应等混杂因素,定量研究气象因素对其他感染性腹泻病的影响程度.结果表明,其他感染性腹泻病的发病具有典型的季节性,且在高温、高湿及低气压的气象条件下易发;气象因素对其他感染性腹泻病的影响均具有明显的滞后效应（相对湿度滞后1 d,其他气象因素滞后6~7 d）;平均气压每升高1个四分位间距,其他感性腹泻病日发病人数减少41.4%,而平均气温、平均风速、相对湿度和日照时数每升高1个四分位间距,其他感性腹泻病日发病人数分别增加66.71.%、5.24%、7.1%和6.93%,说明平均气温对该病的影响最为显著.

To investigate into the influence of meteorological factors on the daily number people with other types of infectious diarrhea,data on the latter and the meteological data,including the average temperature,pressure,relative humidity,precipitation,wind speed and daily sunshine hours,were collected for 2005-2010 in Lanzhou City.On the basis of a qualitative study including correlation analysis and principal component analysis,the relationships between meteorological factors and other types of infectious diarrhea were studied quantitatively by semi-parametric generalized additive models after having the long time trend and the ＂day of week＂ effect controlled.The results showed that the incidence of other types of infectious diarrhea with typical seasonal changes,and they easily occurred in weather conditions with a higher temperature,humidity and lower pressure.There was obviously a lag effect of meteorological factors on other types of infectious diarrhea（a relative humidity lag of 1 d and other meteorological factors＇ lag of 6~7 d）.The number of people with other types of infectious diarrhea decreased by 41.4%per day,which was subject to an inter-quartile range determined by average pressure,and increased by 66.71%,5.24%,7.1%and6.93%per day with an increase of the inter-quartile range determined by average temperature,wind speed,relative humidity and daily sunshine hours respectively.It was concluded that there was a stronger association between the average temperature and other types of infectious diarrhea.