北京市2009-2011年传染病与寄生虫病对气温的响应

Responsed of infectious and parasitic diseases to air temperature in Beijing City from 2009 to 2011

收集北京市某三级甲等医院2009-2011年的传染病和寄生虫病的急诊就诊资料19 772例,在相关分析的基础上,利用半参数的广义相加模型进行拟合,并对气温进行分段研究.发现不同气温段的气象要素对急诊就诊人数的影响不同.平均气温低于5℃时,气温、气压与急诊就诊人数的关系并不显著（P〉0.1）;平均气温介于5~13℃时,气温每升高1℃,相对危险度为1.032（95%置信区间：1.01,1.06）,急诊就诊人数增加3.166%（95%置信区间：0.516%,5.887%）;平均气温高于13℃时,气温每升高1℃,相对危险度为1.013（95%置信区间：1.005,1.021）,急诊就诊人数增加1.301%（95%置信区间：0.518%,2.091%）.得出结论,气温对传染病与寄生虫病具有显著影响,不同气温时就诊人数的增加速率不同,且不同气温区间其他要素的影响也不同.

To estimate the associations between air temperature and acute hospital admissions for infectious diseases and parasitic diseases,the clinic data from 2009 to 2011 were collected from a first-class hospital in Beijing,together with the atmospheric data during that period.A time-series analysis of counts was performed by means of generaUzed additive models with a log link and Poisson distribution.The results showed that atmospheric elements had different influences on patients in different temperature stages.If it was lower than 5℃,there was no significant impact on acute hospital admissions by temperature and air pressure（P〉0.1）,while in the middle temperature stage（5~13℃）,wind speed and precipitation had no significant influence（P〉0.1）,and the relative risk（RR） of 1℃ increase of air temperature was 1.032 with 95%with the confidence interval being 1.01~1.06.If temperature was higher than 13℃,RR was 1.013（95%with the CI being 1.005~1.021） by 1℃ increase of air temperature,meaning that acute hospital admissions would increase by 1.301%（95%with the CI being 0.518%,2.091%）.In conclusion,atmospheric elements may have different impact on infectious diseases and parasitic diseases in different temperature stages in Beijing City.