基于GAM模型分析南京市循环和呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与体感温度的关系

Analysis of the relationship between diseases of the circulatoryrespiratory system and felt air temperature in Nanjing City with the GAM model

研究了在混杂因子的共同作用下,体感温度的变化对循环和呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响,采用广义相加模型对两种系统疾病的死亡人数和体感温度的关系做了分析.结果显示,当以周为时间序列单位,体感温度在20℃以下时,每降低1℃,循环系统疾病的死亡人数增加1.31%,降低5℃,增加6.86%;当以日为时间序列单位,体感温度在14℃以下时,每降低1℃,循环系统疾病的死亡人数增加1.19%,降低5℃,增加5.79%.同样以日为时间序列,当体感温度在20℃以下时,每降低1℃,呼吸系统疾病的死亡人数增加1.41%,降低5℃,增加6.86%,说明体感温度的冷效应对死亡人数的影响较为明显.

An analysis was made of how the death toll changed in accordance with the confounding factors by referring to the deaths caused by respiratory and circulatory system failure and the meteorological data in the corresponding period.The generalized additive model was used to analyze the relation of death toll and the felt air temperature.The results showed that,when the felt air temperature was below 20 ℃ and 1 ℃ dropped,deaths caused by circulatory system diseases would increase by 1.19%;if the temperature dropped by 5 ℃,the death toll increased by 6.86%.This was the result concluded from a weekly analysis.When the day was used as the unit,and the felt air temperature was below 20 ℃,a 1℃ drop would cause death from the respiratory system failure to increase 1.41%;a 5℃ drop would increase the fatality by 6.86%.It has been clearly showed that the cold effect of the felt air temperature on the death toll is rather great.