一种两阶段的航班延误模式提取方法

Two-stage extraction method for flight delay pattern

针对民航运输系统日益严重的航班延误问题,提出一种两阶段的航班延误模式提取方法.该方法运用相空间重构理论和递归图方法,对航班延误率的混沌特性进行分析.然后,在获取延误率子序列的基础上,结合定量递归分析理论,采用K-means聚类技术提取航班延误模式,并对各种延误模式进行时变分析.实例验证表明,该方法不但能有效地提取航班延误模式,而且可以获取延误模式的时变特征,研究成果对机场和航空公司航班延误预测及预警提供了管理决策依据.

For the problem of severer flight delays,based on the relative research achievements in domestic and aboard,this paper proposes a two-stage method for extracting flight delay patterns. Firstly,this method uses the phase-space reconstruction theory and Recurrence Plot to analyze the chaotic characteristics of flight delay rate.Then,after acquiring the delay time subsequences,the Recursive Quantitative Analysis and K-means Clustering technology were used to extract flight delay patterns,and the characteristics of time-varying of flight delay patterns were analyzed. Finally,the example verifies this method can not only effectively extract flight delay patterns,but also can get the time-varying characteristics of the patterns. The result provides managerial and decisive reference of prediction and warning of flight delay for airports and airlines.