油价波动下成品油销售企业库存控制研究

Study of Inventory Control Strategy for Oil Sales Enterprise During Oil Price Fluctuating Period

在分析国内成品油价格影响因素的基础上,建立影响因素的层次结构关系,形成有效的价格预测机制。提出基于定期订货(包括订货成本、持有成本和库存跌价风险)的油价波动时库存控制模型,以库存成本最小化为目标,给出模型求解方法,得出最优订货周期和订货量。以某公司一定时期内的实际数据作为算例,计算得到最优库存控制策略,验证了模型的有效性,为企业经营决策提供了理论依据。

Based on the analysis of factors affecting domestic oil price, the article establishes hierarchical structure to form effective price forecasting mechanism and builds inventory control model based on regular orders （including ordering cost, holding cost and the risk of stock price） . The objective is minimizing total inventory cost. Optimal order cycle and order quantity can be calculated by the given model solving method. An example of a particular company with actual data in certain period of time is given to verify the validity of the model. Optimal inventory control strategy has provided theoretical basis for business decisions.