2005-2015年CBA各球队竞争实力的不确定性研究

Research on the Uncertainty of CBA Teams' Competition Power in the 2005- 2015 Seasons

以近10届(2005-2015)CBA各球队为案例,采集横截面、时间序列、面板3个层面的数据,基于经济学HHI方法衡量和揭示CBA各球队竞争实力的不确定性,探寻CBA各球队竞争实力不确定性与现场观众人数、主客场胜率和净胜分等之间的关系,结果表明:近10届CBA联赛HHI值呈下降趋势,说明CBA各球队竞争力正向着均衡方向发展,但赛季内部球队之间竞争力差距依然明显;主场和客场胜率之间差距存在高度显著性(P<0.01);CBA观众上座率与HHI之间呈高度负相关(P<0.05),即比赛结果的不确定性越强,上座率就越高;近10届CBA联赛主、客场净胜分差值在逐渐缩小,冠亚军球队实力正趋于平衡,但与其它队伍之间的差距存在显著性。

Taking CBA teams in the last 10 seasons （2005 -2015 ） as a case, and applying HHI method in Economics to the analysis of the data in cross section, time sequence and panel, the author measures and reveals the uncertainty of CBA teams＇ competition power and explores the uncertainty＇ s relation to audience, winning percentage in home and away competitions and net scores. Results demonstrate that the CBA HHI value gradually decreases in the past 10 seasons, which indicates that the CBA teams＇ competition power is developing towards a balanced state, while the competitive gap between the teams is still significant ; The gap between home and away winning percentage is quite significant （ P 〈 0.01 ）, and the CBA spectator attendance rate is negatively correlated with HHI value （ P 〈 0.05 ） , that is, the more uncertain the result is, the higher is the rate of attendance, the gap in net score between home and away teams in the past 10 years is gradually narrowing, and the champion and the runner up are becoming close in their strength, but both champion and runner up is sig- nificantly stronger than the rest teams in strength.