黑龙江省土地利用变化的碳排放效应研究

Effects of Different Land Use Patterns on Carbon Emission in Heilongjiang Province

土地利用结构的改变是影响碳排放量变化的重要因素。为探究黑龙江省土地利用变化下的碳排放效应问题,本文以土地利用变更数据、能源统计数据和土地利用/覆盖数据为基础,分析土地利用变化情况,核算碳排放/吸收量及其强度并进行区际差异分析。结果表明:黑龙江省2004—2012年用地类型中以耕地面积增长最快,其动态度为3.73%,园地大量减少;期间碳排放量逐年递增,年均增长量为6 020.85万t;建设用地是影响碳排放的最主要因素,应重点从建设用地上着手控制碳排放;黑龙江省碳排放区际差异明显,碳排放大部分集中于南部的齐齐哈尔市、大庆市、绥化市、哈尔滨市4个地级市,2010年四者碳排放量占到全省的58.17%;全省碳排放强度呈下降趋势,但年均生产总值持续增长,当前碳排放量增加不会因为碳排放强度的下降而有所减缓,倘若今后不采取有效的节能减排措施,在未来很长时间内黑龙江省净排放量将会居高不下。研究结果可为相关政策的制定提供基础依据。

The changes of land use are an important factor affecting the total carbon emissions. In order to study the effect of land use type on the carbon emissions, In this paper, based on the land change data of HeiLongjiang Province from 2004 to 2012, energy statistics data and LUCC, we used the quantitative method to analyze the carbon emission in different land use types, as well as introduced the land use emission marginal change to analyze the factor which may influence the carbon emission and then put forward the corresponding strategies. The results show that： the area of cultivated land increased fastest, and its land use dynamic degree was 3.73~/oo, the quickest decrease area was the garden plot; from 2004 to 2012, total carbon emissions increased in Heilongjiang Province year by year, the average annual growth rate was 6. 028 5 ×107 t; the construction land and cultivated land were the main carbon emission sources, cultivated land and forestland were the main carbon sequestration; carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province were regional differences significantly, carbon emissions mostly concentrated in the south of Qiqihaer, Daqing, Suihua, Harbin City, in 2010 the carbon emissions accounted for 58. 17%. The carbon emission intensity presented the downward trend, but Heilongjiang Province＇s GDP increased at an average annual rate of decline, and was significantly greater than that of carbon emission intensity, thus decrease of the carbon emissions intensity was not enough to reduce carbon emissions. If the effective energy saving measures were not taken in for a long time in the future, net carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province would remain high. The results can provide basis for the formulation of relevant policies.