拒马河上游年径流序列特性分析及其随机模拟

Analysis of annual series of Juma River and concerned random simulation

利用位于拒马河上游的紫荆关站多年径流系列资料（1965-2013年），在阐述水文资料审查的基础上，通过对资料的自相关和偏相关分析，采用AR（1）模型建模，经过检验，模拟效果较好，为拒马河的防洪提供了一定依据。

We made an analysis of the annual runoff series of the Zijingguan station from 1965 to 2013, which is located in the upper reaches of the Juma River. On the basis of the review briefly of hydrological data, the autocorrelation and partial correlation analysis were made to choose AR （1） model for simulation .In the end ,the statistical test was made on the model and the simulation result was effective.The model provided a certain basis for flood control of Juma River.