基于GTAP模型的金砖自贸区预期经济效应分析

Expected Economic Effects Analyses on the BRICS'FTA:Based on GTAP Model

2008年全球金融危机后,金砖国家作为新兴经济体的代表,成为世界经济新一轮增长的焦点.随着金砖国家经贸联系的不断紧密、合作程度的不断加深,金砖各国的国内矛盾和国际间的利益冲突越发凸显出来.如何进一步深化金砖合作,促进经济的稳定与增长,成为金砖国家面临的新的难题.使用GTAP模型,对金砖国家自贸区建设进程中的经济效应进行模拟分析,并依据分析结果给出以金砖金融体系稳定为框架、以重点城市产业园区为先导、以金砖各国战略性发展产业为合作契机、阶段性建设金砖国家自贸区的建议.

After the international financial crisis in 2008, the BRICS, seen as the repre- sentatives of emerging economies, have become the focus of a new round of global economic growth. While, along with the closer economic ties and deeper cooperation degree among the BRICS, comes the domestic contradictions and international conflicts of interest. How to further the BRICS＇ cooperation and maintain the stability and growth of economy becomes a new problem of the BRICS. Based on the Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） Model, this paper makes a stimulation of the completion of the BRICS＇ FTA. According to the results, making a stable financial system the framework, industrial zones in key cities the forerunners, and strategic development industries cooperative chances will be beneficial for the foundation of BRICS＇ FTA.