CARAH马铃薯晚疫病预警模型在贵阳地区的应用

Application of CARAH Early Warning Model in Potato Late Blight in Guiyang Area

为提高马铃薯晚疫病预警监测水平及防治效果,选择贵阳市3个不同海拔的马铃薯种植基地安装QD-3340MV无线自动气象站,运用CARAH模型进行预警监测和防控指导研究。结果表明：在中心病株出现时间预测,修文县和息烽县观测点的观测圃预测值与田间实际发生吻合,开阳县观测点的观测圃预测值与田间实际发生误差1d。修文县观测点马铃薯晚疫病重度和极重度侵染为47次,占72.31%;息烽县为54次,占90.00%;开阳县为38次,占74.51%。重度和极重度侵染湿润期次数占绝对优势,表明3个观测点马铃薯晚疫病呈大发生态势,与对照观测圃的发生程度吻合。按照CARAH模型预测进行示范防控,示范区的病指为7.89~14.89,对照区病指为82.74~89.78。结论：运用CARAH模型可有效地防控马铃薯晚疫病。

The QD-3340 MV wireless automatic meteorological station was installed in three potato cultivation bases with different elevation respectively and then the potato late blight situation of three bases was monitored and controlled by CARAH model to improve early warming and monitoring level,and control effect of potato late blight. The results showed that the predicted value for the central disease plant of the observation nursery in Xiuwen and Xifeng Counties is consistent with actual occurrence in field and there is only 1d difference in occurrence of the central disease plant between the predicted value of the observation nursery and actual occurrence in field in kaiyang County. Occurrence frequency of severe and extremely severe potato late blight in Xiuwen County,Xifeng County and Kaiyang County is 47,54 and 38,accounts for 72. 31 %,90. 00 % and 74. 51 of total occurrence of potato late blight respectively. The occurrence frequency of severe and extremely severe infection humid period of potato late blight assumes absolute superiority. The potato late blight of three observation sites presents the outbreak occurrence,which is consistent with occurrence of CK observation nursery. The disease index of the demonstration area controlled by prediction of CARAH model is 7. 89- 14. 89,but the disease index of CK area is 82. 74- 89. 78. In conclusion,CARAH model can prevent and control potato late blight effectively.