地方财政可持续性实证检验——基于云南省2010-2014年数据

Empirical Test on Local Fiscal Sustainability:Based on the Data from 2010 to 2014 in Yunnan Province

地方财政是国家财政的组成部分,地方财政的可持续性会直接影响国家财政的可持续性。本文以云南省为样本,利用协整检验工具从动态角度分析地方财政得出结论:小口径财政表现出强可持续性;中口径财政在考虑了基金预算支出和预算外支出因素后,转化为弱可持续性。这就说明,单靠税收收入是不能满足地方公共支出需要的。因此,对地方政府债务管理是否有效,是影响地方财政可否持续的重要因素。

Local finance is part of the national finance. The sustainability of local finance will directly affect the national fiscal sustainability. Taking Yunnan province as a sample, using cointegration test tools, it is concluded from the perspective of dynamic analysis of local finance： small finance shows strong sustainability; medium finance turns into weak sustainability after considering fund budget spending and non-budgetary expenditures factors. This means that, tax revenue alone cannot meet the need of local public spending.Therefore, whether the local government debt management is effective is the important factors that affect local fiscal sustainability.