长江流域径流对气候变化响应的定量分析

Quantitative analysis on the response of runoff to climate change in Yangtze River Basin

以长江流域1961—2010年的降水、气温、相对湿度和日照时数作为基本气候要素,分析大通径流量与气候要素的相关关系,并对径流量对长江流域气候变化的响应进行了分析。结果表明:大通径流量对长江中下游区域的气候变化很敏感,径流量对降水量的响应最强烈,径流量对相对湿度、气温和日照时数的响应仅为对降水量响应的1/2、1/4和1/39;当气候要素耦合且同向变化时,径流量对任何单一气候要素变化的响应都小于对多要素耦合变化响应程度;但是,当气候要素耦合且反向变化时,径流量对任何单一气候要素变化的响应都大于对多要素耦合变化响应程度,耦合的气候要素越多,这种效应越显著。

Taking precipitation,temperature,relative humidity and sunshine duration in Yangtze River Basin during the year of 1961- 2010 as the basic climatic elements,the relationship between the runoff and the climatic elements and the response of runoff to climate change were analyzed. The results indicate that the runoff is very sensitive to the climate change in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin,where the precipitation is the key factor affecting runoff changes and its effect magnitude on the runoff is approximately 2 times,4 times and39 times as much as that values of relative humidity,air temperature and sunshine duration. The results also reveal that the response of runoff to the single climatic element variation is less than to the multi-elements coupling changes,when these elements increase or decrease in the same direction. However,when some elements increase while others decrease,the response of runoff to the single climatic element is higher than the multi-elements coupling changes. This respond is significant with the more elements coupling changes together.