珠江口咸潮影响因素分析

Analysis on the influence factors of saltwater in Pearl River Estuary

对珠江口平岗泵站和联石湾水闸两个代表站咸潮与流量、潮差、潮水位、海平面、气象等影响因素的响应规律采用集对分析和非参相关分析方法进行了研究,结果表明:1珠江口咸潮的主要影响因素为流量、最低潮位和海平面,潮差、风级为次要影响因素;2平岗泵站和联石湾水闸咸潮对各影响因素的敏感性具有差异性,平岗泵站咸湖对流量更敏感,联石湾水闸咸潮对海平面、最低潮位、潮差和最高潮位的敏感性大于平岗泵站;3未来全球气候还将持续变暖,珠江流域枯水径流变化复杂,珠江口海平面上升速度在加快,应加强珠江口咸潮变化机理的研究。

Several saltwater influential factors including flow,tidal range,tidal level,sea level,climate,etc. at the two representative stations of Pinggang pump station and Lianshiwan station in Pearl River Estuary were researched,using set pair analysis and nonparametric correlation analysis methods. The results showed that：（ 1） In the Pearl River Estuary,the main influential factors to saltwater are flow,lowest tide level and the sea level. The tidal range and wind are secondary influential factors.（ 2） There are differences in the sensitivity of saltwater influential factors between Pinggang pumping station and Lianshiwan station. It is more sensitive to flow at Pinggang pumping station and more sensitive to sea level,the lowest tidal level,tidal range and the highest tidal level at Lianshiwan station.（ 3） The global climate continues warming,which makes low flow complex at the Pearl River Basin and sea level rising fast in the Pearl River Estuary. More research should be done on the changing mechanism of saltwater in Pearl River Estuary.