战国的终结与制衡的失效——对战国时期合纵连横的反思

The End of Warring States and Failure of Balancing:A Study on the Stratagem of Vertical and Horizontal Alliances of the Warring States Period

在研究者比较中国与欧洲的历史时,一个重要的问题是为何中国在战国后期最后由秦国统一,而欧洲却长期分裂。文章所要解决的核心困惑是:在秦国崛起的过程中,各国为何对其未能形成有效的制衡,却有效地制衡了魏国和齐国的崛起。对此,笔者提出三个假设,认为实力差距、地理距离和是否灭国是三个重要影响因素。在动态博弈模型的基础上,笔者对战国历次制衡进行了案例分析,包括对魏国的制衡即围魏救赵与围魏救韩、各国对齐国的制衡即五国伐齐以及各国对秦国的制衡即历次合纵。随后,笔者根据历史数据进行了统计分析,并论证了前述假设。文章发现,秦国之所以能成功统一六国,关键原因并不是避免遭受各国遏制,而是尽力避免遭受致命的制衡。秦国通过兼并而非灭国、连横与远交近攻等策略减少了各国对自身的威胁感,最终使一统六国势不可挡。

A key question raised in comparative historical studies of China and Europe is why China was able unify under the Qin Dynasty following the Warring States Period,while Europe fell into an extended period of division following its own internal wars.The central puzzle that this article seeks to solve is why Chinese pre-Qin states were not able to effectively check the rise of Qin State power,whereas they had been able to successfully contain the rise of the States of Wei and Qi.The author advances three hypotheses to explain this,namely that relative gaps in state power,geographical distance and whether challenger try to eliminated other major powers are three critical factors.On the basis of a dynamic game theoretic model,the author conducts case analysis of historical efforts of warring parties to contain one another,including:efforts to hedge against the State of Wei,namely besiege Wei to save the States of Zhao and later Han;efforts of six states to hedge against the State of Qi;and the efforts of states to contain the State of Qin,including various horizontal alliance strategies.Following the case analysis,the author goes on to conduct a statistical analysis of historical data in order to assess the above mentioned hypotheses.The study finds that the key to the State of Qin's successful unification was not that it avoided efforts of other states' containment its,but that it worked to prevent any containment efforts that might prove fatal.The Qin was regarded by other states as status quo state without any attemption to eliminate them.Through strategies including horizontal alliance formation, 'befriending distant states while attacking nearby states' and occupying land but not eliminate other major power,Qin successfully reduce other states' insecurity and make the ultimate unification of the six states inevitable.