中小国家干预行为的决定因素

Determinantsof Small and Medium-Sized States' Intervention

虽然中小国家干预国际冲突的现象并不少见,但当前有关第三方国家干预的研究尚未充分关注这一现象。文章利用第三方国家干预研究中的机会意愿分析框架来探讨这一问题,并提出有待验证的假设。文章对国际冲突数据进行两次统计分析,预测了这类国家干预国际冲突的概率,得出影响其干预的决定因素。分析表明,虽然中小国家干预国际冲突的可能性低于大国,但二者差距非常小;政体因素在此过程中并不起显著作用;中小国家的国家实力与毗邻性这两个因素的显著性有一定程度的下降。因此,机会意愿分析框架在解释中小国家干预行为上存在提升空间。

While it is not true that small and medium sized states rarely intervene in international conflicts,studies of third parties' joining behavior have not fully considered when and why this might occur.This article considers this issue applying the opportunity-willingness analysis framework commonly identified in research on third parties' joining behavior,and proposes a number of hypotheses to test.The article incorporates two sets of statistical models of international conflict dataset in order to predict the likelihood of this type of third parties' intervention in international conflicts,and to identify the factors determining the decision whether to intervene.The analysis argues that:(1) while the probability of small and medium sized states intervening in international conflict is smaller than that of powers,the difference in probability is extremely small;(2) factorsof regimes does not play an evident role in determining intervention;(3) State capabilities and contiguity are significantly less significant when it comes to small and medium sized states.In conclusion,there is space for improvement when it comes to the ability of the opportunity-willingness framework to explain why small and medium-sized states intervene in international conflicts.