摘要
2015年是人类空前的浩劫——第二次世界大战结束70周年。二战的破坏可谓空前,但其是否绝后,却还有待观察与思考。正如我们可以把战争分为"热战"与"冷战"一样,和平同样也可分为"冷和平"(假和平)与"真和平"。"冷和平"是一种非常不稳定的国际关系状态,"冷和平"容易给人以和平的假象,以为和平就是必然的,战争离我们很远,从而使得某些中小国家容易"任性",大国容易缺乏包容,低端政治问题容易"越位",这反而容易酿成真正的大危机与大危险。近期西方战略学者发出的"基辛格之忧"与"哈斯之问"也反映了对"冷和平"的忧虑。国际社会如果对"冷和平"状态认识不够、处置不当,则有可能导致国际战争的再现与和平的终结。从历史、现实、未来三个维度,结合中国的国家安全与大国博弈的背景,对国际安全与战争问题做战略思考,可以发现:从历史维度来看,人们对国际战争的认识经历了一个历史过程;从现实维度来看,当前中小国家"任性"乱为,大国博弈暗流涌动,"冷和平"状态令人担忧;从未来维度来看,中美关系与中日关系是影响中国国家安全的最重要的大国关系因素,也是中国对国际战争问题进行战略思考与未来展望时所无法回避的。中国要妥善谨慎地处理好中美关系与中日关系,未来爱好和平的中国将会成为遏制国际战争的重要力量。
This year marks the 70 th anniversary of the end of the World War Ⅱ and the victory of the Anti-Fascist War.WWⅡ is an unprecedented disaster for humanity and,however,it can never be guaranteed that world wars will not break out again in the future.Just as war can be classified as Cold War and Hot War,peace can also be defined as Cold Peace and Real Peace.Cold Peace,as an unstable state in the international relations,may bring misleading perception of peace,where peace is taken for granted,and potential crises may lead to international conflicts/ wars.This is clearly reflected in concerns of western scholars as exemplified by what is called Kissinger's Worry and Haass' s Question.This paper approaches the question from a strategic and historical perspective and draws the following three conclusions:1)historically it takes a long time for people to realize the negative impactsof wars;2)currently,we are in a dangerous stage of Cold Peace in terms of international security;3) the Sino-US and Sino-Japanese relations will be crucial to the Major Powers relations that affect the national security of China in the future.China should find ways to deal with the two major relations and play its role in maintaining the world peace.
出处
《国际安全研究》
2015年第5期22-39,共18页
Journal of International Security Studies
关键词
国际安全
冷和平
国际战争
大国博弈
中美关系
中日关系
international security
Cold Peace
major power relations
Sino-US Relations
Sino-Japanese relations
