安倍政府修宪对亚太安全的影响

The Abe Administration's Amendment of the Peace Constitution:on the Security of Asia-Pacific Region

修改和平宪法是安倍晋三右倾政治的核心。安倍政府推动修宪,有着长期积累的、复杂的远期背景,即历史、社会、法律根源,这些社会根源长期根植于二战以后的日本社会。近期背景包括社会、国际和安倍右翼政权执政。其中领导者个人因素也起了推波助澜的作用。安倍认为提振经济并非易事,只有树立修宪的旗帜,才能使自己执政时间更长。经过国内外多层博弈之后,安倍顽固地坚持修宪路线。修宪的核心目标是要删除宪法第九条,获得对外交战权,建立国防军,改变战后国际秩序,成为不受任何束缚的、全能的政治、经济和军事大国。为此,安倍政府不断进行舆论准备、政策准备和组织准备。如果修宪成功,日本将拥有国防军、交战权,并施行"积极和平主义",将成为一个强势的日本、危险的日本,在客观效果上将带来亚太地区安全上的某些不确定性,甚至可能引发地区动荡和军备竞赛。但是,在安倍执政期内,很难实现修宪的目标,其成功的概率只有40%。不过,即使安倍政府推动的修宪不能成功,自其执政以来到现在所推动的修宪,也已经给亚太地区安全带来了消极负面的影响,引起了地区国家之间的猜忌和关系紧张,也导致这些国家在心理上加强了对日本的戒备,同时推动了东亚地区实际军备竞赛的出现。

The amendment of the Peace Constitution is the core policy of Shinzo Abe's Right-Wing politics.The Abe administration's push for the amendment has a complex long-term and short-term context.Its long-term historical,social and legal contexts have long been entrenched in the post-WWII Japanese society and the short-term context involves,in addition to the personal touches of politicians,social changes,international environment and the Right-Wing regime.Faced with the difficult task of boosting the Japanese economy,Abe finds an easier way to prolong his term in amending the Constitution.The key target of his amendment is to abolish Article 9 of the Constitution so as to acquire the right to declare wars,to build armed forces,thus altering the post-war international order and empowering Japan to become an unrestricted,all-powerful normal nation in politics,economics and military.To achieve that end,the Abe administration has made preparations on three fronts:public opinions,policies and mobilization.If his attempt succeeded,Japan,with its armed forces,would have the right to declare wars,and implement positive pacifism,thus becoming a strong and dangerous nation,casting uncertainty to security in the Asia-Pacific region,and leading to regional instability and the arms race.In spite of the 40%probability of amending the Constitution during Abe's reign,and even in case of total failure,his attempt has already exerted a negative impact on the security in the region,causing suspicion and tension among nations,arousing heightened alarm of the neighboring countries,and starting the de facto arms race in East Asia.